This project produced a software tool, the Dynamic Asset Condition Model (DACM), using sophisticated statistical methods, to model deterioration rates and predict life expectancies of groups of similar assets.
Traditional statistical approaches to condition assessment produce results that are essentially one-off "snapshots". When more data becomes available, the entire analysis is repeated to generate a new assessment. The DACM improves on this by using Bayesian statistics, enabling planners to make use of all available data. New data can be added as inspections are carried out, giving a more accurate view of the assets.
With the demand by Ofwat, that utilities in England and Wales provide more robust economic justifications of their capital maintenance proposals, there is an obvious need for tools like the DACM to be widely used.